In the South, we feed people. We make people a plate and share extra produce from our gardens. When someone needs a place to stay, we pull out the couch. These are some of the ways we show love as Southerners. This type of care for our neighbors will be even more crucial as we face a compounding budget crisis, manufactured in state houses and in Congress and delivered to doorsteps across the region.
Last year, Mississippi passed a law to phase out its state income tax, eliminating roughly a third of state revenue at the same time the federal government began requiring states to absorb a larger share of Medicaid and SNAP costs. In a state that did not expand Medicaid, has the highest rate of food insecurity and the second highest poverty rate in the nation, this will be catastrophic. Other Southern states that have cut income tax rates are similarly affected. This choice leaves local communities with a giant bill and no margin left to absorb it.
The federal H.R. 1 budget reconciliation bill, signed into law on July 4, 2025, misleadingly named the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” is one of the largest rollbacks of federal investment in more than a generation. A year later, its effects are measurable, already here, and getting worse. At MDC, we continue to ask questions about policy decisions that we have asked for almost 60 years: who benefits, and who gets left out? On H.R. 1, the answer isn’t complicated. Rural, Black and brown, working class, and immigrant Southerners will all be worse off.
What the Numbers Actually Say
H.R. 1 cuts SNAP by $187 billion and Medicaid by $1 trillion over the next decade and shifts billions in costs from the federal government down to states, making the 2017 tax cuts (which disproportionately benefit wealthy households) permanent. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the bill adds more than $4 trillion to the national debt when interest costs are included. The tax cuts far outweigh spending reductions, and closing that gap will result in drastic cuts to crucial services.
The impacts are already being felt. SNAP enrollment in Southern states has dropped anywhere between 7% to 21%, not because incomes rose, but because narrowed eligibility requirements and new administrative burdens are pushing eligible people out of the program. Rural ACA marketplace enrollment dropped by around 162,000 from 2025 to 2026 in the 10 Southern states where data is available. Mississippi alone is down at least 5% in 2026.
The Shift to States Is a Transfer of Burden, Not Power
H.R. 1 shifts responsibility for Medicaid and SNAP administration to states, while cutting the federal dollars that pay for them. Unlike the federal government, counties and states must balance budgets. When Washington offloads costs, states face a choice between cutting services, raising revenue through tax increases, or both. In the South, where legislatures have largely resisted Medicaid expansion and tax cuts remain popular even as fiscal pressure mounts, the communities most harmed by H.R. 1 have the least buffer.
While H.R. 1 provided $50 billion in Rural Health Transformation Program funding for rural health systems, eight Southern states top this year’s list of states most affected by ACA subsidy expirations, losing a total of $22 billion in GDP and 201,600 jobs.
When Medicaid cuts destabilize rural hospitals and tightened eligibility pushes people out of SNAP and health insurance, it is not just a health crisis. It is an economic one, felt hardest by communities underserved for generations.
Southern Legislators Are Holding the Map. What Route Will They Choose?
“There is an incredible opportunity for more forward-looking policymakers to step to the fore. By adopting a revenue-first response, states now hold real potential to mitigate harm for millions of residents and lay the foundation for a more equitable and prosperous future.”—Gbenga Ajilore. MDC Webinar, April 2026.
As state budget cycles open this summer, Southern legislators face a defining choice. The road the federal government has mapped with H.R. 1 is already leading to higher uninsured rates, deeper food insecurity, and cascading economic impacts for rural communities. Southern states have access to tools to protect the civic infrastructure that federal cuts are eroding, including Medicaid expansion, protecting existing revenue sources, and reversing recent cuts to income and property taxes. The question is whether any of them have the will or courage to use these proven tools to move toward a more thriving and equitable South.
This MFP Voices opinion essay reflects the personal opinion of its author(s). The column does not necessarily represent the views of the Mississippi Free Press, its staff or board members. To submit an opinion for the MFP Voices section, send up to 1,200 words and sources fact-checking the included information to voices@mississippifreepress.org. We welcome a wide variety of viewpoints.
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