The Lawyers and the Statistician

Day three of the Michael Ellis termination hearing resumed on Wednesday, Feb. 14, with Ellis’ attorney Lisa Ross concluding her cross-examination of Charlie Bonds, Jackson Public Schools executive director of internal audits. Ellis, Chastain Middle School’s principal until Dec. 18 of last year, was fired from his position for failure “to achieve significant progress” in Chastain’s performance, among other allegations. Ellis claims that JPS fired him in retribution for charging JPS School Superintendent Dr. Earl Watkins with sexual harassment. He and his wife filed a Title VII lawsuit against Watkins and JPS on Jan. 18, 2007.

During the first day of the hearing, Shae Robinson, JPS executive director of human resources, was the only witness, testifying about Ellis’ career at Chastain. On Tuesday, Bonds and JPS Assistant Internal Auditor Loretta Talbert testified about two internal audits JPS presented as evidence that Ellis had lost control of his school’s finances and that he had falsified payroll documents. The second audit, which uncovered Ellis’ changes to one office assistant’s time sheet, is under investigation by Mississippi State Auditor Phil Bryant; initial findings have reduced the 49 hours in question to 29. Bonds testified that JPS did not lose money because of Ellis’ actions, nor had Ellis profited. Talbert testified that serious financial issues at other schools—one involving approximately $10,000 and another involving $12,000—did not result in any terminations.

On Wednesday, JPS Attorney Armin Moeller called Dr. Willie Johnson, JPS executive director of accountability and research, to the stand. Johnson’s testimony centered around two primary-color bar charts: Chastain discipline offenses, and a summary of Chastain’s Mississippi Curriculum Test scores for the past four years. Consistent with JPS strategy thus far, Moeller concentrated only on data from Chastain. In such isolation, the data seemed to support the allegations that Ellis had “failed to achieve significant progress,” had “steadily declined” and was in a “state of chaos and disruption.”

But as Mark Twain said, there are “lies, damn lies and statistics.” Under Ross’ cross-examination, Johnson put the Chastain statistics into larger context, which calls Moeller’s cherry-picked conclusions into question. (“Cherry picking” is a statistical term for data presented out of context.)

Under Moeller’s questioning, Johnson testified that Chastain’s number of student disciplinary offenses increased from a total of 21 in the ’05-’06 school year to 52 for the first half of the current year, an increase of more than 250 percent. Without any other context, the numbers didn’t look good, especially in the bright red, yellow and green bar chart.

Under cross-examination, Johnson testified that the data did not show the specific type of offense, which could range from relatively trivial offenses to rape and murder. Johnson also testified to the number of offenses at all other JPS middle schools for the ’05-’06 year, and estimated the number of students in each, introducing the factor of proportional size. Rowan Middle School, for example, with a student population roughly one-third of Chastains, had 18 offenses to Chastain’s 21. Proportionally, Rowan actually had more offenses per capita for the year than Chastain. Once placed in a wider context, the Chastain disciplinary data lost its glamour, moving Chastain from last to the third-best middle school in the district for that year.

“You want to paint a true picture of Chastain, don’t you?” Ross asked Johnson at one point, to which Johnson replied that he did.

On the chart showing Chastain MCT scores, Moeller concluded that scores were on a downward trend during Ellis’ tenure. Ross’ cross-examination of Johnson concentrated first on the effect household income has on test scores. Johnson admitted that household income was a key factor not evident on the chart. He estimated that 70 percent of Chastain students received free or reduced lunches, indicating that the majority of Chastain students are from economically challenged or impoverished households. Johnson also testified that Chastain’s test scores actually improved for the same period in four of nine areas.

In further testimony, Johnson put Chastain’s entry into the federal “No Child Left Behind” school improvement program into context with the nine other Jackson middle schools. Including Chastain, nine of the 10 JPS middle schools are in the program, with four—Hardy, Peeples, Siwell and Whitten—in corrective action, meaning that they have failed to meet certain standards for three years or more, although they have received federal funds specifically with the goal of raising them. JPS has fired none of the principals of the other eight middle schools in the school improvement program, Johnson testified.

The Ellis hearing will reconvene on or around March 19, when Ross will conclude her cross-examination of Johnson.

The Mississippi Free Press produced this story through the MFP Solutions Lab, supported by the Solutions Journalism Network. This series digs into Mississippi’s systemic issues and sheds light on responses to them in other communities. Beyond just reporting on problems, these stories interrogate their causes and inspect potential solutions.